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Good trade scale in certing cotton
Jul '08
Cotton was not expecting any big changes in the USDA report this morning, but new crop production was cut by .5 million bales to 14 mbs which in itself gave the market an early boost (see summary on page 2 in attached PDF).

However, the grains were unable to hold the early opening gains and this lead to profit taking in cotton which also was fueled by a pull back in oil prices after hitting a new record high at 147.00 usd/barrel.

The S&D reports were neutral to friendly across the board and the markets were able to fight back to unchanged or higher by the end of the day. Volume was below average again with only 15,000 futures and 9,000 options. The stock market and USD had another hard day as the equity markets are unable to gain any ground with the speculation over Fannie May and Freddie Mac.

Economic conditions continue to look negative as we are concerned about the future of the deteriorating real estate market in the U.S. The Commitment of traders reports was a good indication that specs did sell this week while the trade were scale down buyers (see summary on page 3in attached PDF).

Weather is obviously the most important factor at this stage of the game and we will have to monitor things closely but the market seems to be stuck in a range between 70/75 basis Z'08 for the short term.

This trend will not be ending anytime soon and we should see friendlier monetary and fiscal policies that will support the equity markets and may take some investment out of the commodity complex.

At the moment, cotton seems to be forming a long term trading range between 70/80 cents. We find good demand scale down when the front month breaks 70 cents, but there is good trade scale up selling above 80 cents where certing cotton becomes more attractive.

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