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Cotton crops across the Delta threatened by boll rot
Sep '08
An active day in cotton after the long weekend turned most commodities down after Gustav did not pack the punch that was expected. The U.S. dollar also had a nice bounce and this lead to an early rally in equities, but this eventually came down and commodities also bounced off the lows.

Oil prices lead the early fall in the commodity index across the board as other commodity almost reached limit down, but late afternoon support, gave cotton some momentum and hit some buy stops. Volume was above average with almost 20,000 futures and 8,000 options, but open interest remains on the lows of the year.

Spec hedge report on page 2 in attachd PDF shows the specs going from .9% long to 3.6% long this week and possibly starting to follow the friendly technical picture as they increase exposure. Cotton crop across the Delta has some problems as wet cool weather threatens to produce boll rot this year.

Along with more storms on the way, the uncertainty of the crop is keeping the downside limited, but we should see good scale up selling near the top of the range at 72.00. Ramadan has begun in large importing countries such as Indonesia and Turkey and this may have an impact on demand along with the bounce in cotton prices through the holiday period where some mills may be closed until mid-October.

Technicals turned friendly last week as MACD started to cross higher in cotton made a nice run to the upside. Although volatile, the market is well traded in the range. We ran through some correction, but buying interest would come through to prevent the market from falling off.

Considering the low open interest in cotton and the lack of demand, cotton feels like we may continue in a sideways trading range up to heavy resistance at 72.00. This will depend on how much the rebound in outside markets can follow through, but the short term upside looks limited and we may see a correction in cotton if we cannot break through 72.00 cents.

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