Cotton struggled back and forth throughout the holiday-shortened week before finally collapsing on Friday. Fears of potential losses on the supply side of the equation from the series of tropical events were greatly overshadowed this past week by widespread fears of even greater losses in demand.
Weakness in the global economy and realization that the general public is now being clobbered by widespread liquidation of hedge funds dwarfed fears spawned by potential weather losses.
In economic news Friday, Traders “expected bad and got worse” from the job report when that indicator went to a 5 year high. Hopefully, this weekends news will help begin to alter those attitudes.
With prices already weakened by closing at their lowest levels in two weeks on Thursday, cotton prices tumbled through previous lows and almost reached limit down before trying once again to dig in. The CRB index ended at its lowest level since early February with Fridays close the sixth straight losing session. It was obvioius that markets fed on one another's weakness.
The September Crop Production Report and WASDE is due this coming Friday. In August, USDA estimated yields at 842 lbs. per acre and production of 13.767 million bales. It is my understanding that Informa is now pegging the crop at 14.020 bales from 857 lbs yield.
Friday's reversal in the Dow Industrials was hailed as signaling an impending bounce by many analysts. However, initial reaction to Saturday's decision to bailout Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was wildly enthusiastic. As of this writing Sunday evening stock futures were trading a whopping two percent higher.
The move is looked at as a positive for banks around the world. Hopes are, of course, that the move will aid in recovery of the housing and credit markets. However, this week investors will also be watching retail sales, pending home sales, trade deficit and wholesale inflation. Despite an impressive reversal off the lows Friday, the Dow still lost 2.79 percent and the Nasdaq 4.72 percent for the week.
Initial reaction to the Fannie/Freddie news also put pressure on the dollar and strength into gold, silver and grains and I would expect the same reaction in cotton. Ike's proximity to the Gulf put strength into crude oil futures.
Often times moves become overextended on Friday as one side or the other throws in the towel for the weekend. If that was indeed the case, prices should demonstrate early buoyancy and resilience from support that should build support well above Friday's closing levels.
Fridays technical collapse was accelerated when sell stops were triggered below 6810, 6762 and 6679. Friday's lows basically reached the trend line off the July/August lows which in itself, should satisfy downside targets and help provide a bounce.
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