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Cotton exports unchanged despite lower supply
Nov '09
This month's U.S. cotton estimates for 2009/10 show lower production, lower ending stocks, and higher prices. The crop production forecast is reduced 502,000 bales from last month, with the largest reductions in Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports also are unchanged, despite the lower supply, due to lower production and stronger demand outside the United States.

The forecast range for the average price received by producers of 52 to 60 cents per pound is raised 3 cents on each end of the range. The world 2009/10 cotton forecasts include a 4.3-percent decrease in ending stocks from last month, which results from a combination of lower beginning stocks, lower production, and higher consumption. Imports and consumption for Bangladesh are raised beginning in 2003/04 based on analysis of new information sources, which indicate that both are sharply higher than previously estimated.

Increases in prior years' exports, mostly among Bangladesh's trading partners, reduce beginning stocks for 2009/10. World production in 2009/10 is lowered by just over 1.0 million bales, including reductions for China and the United States, partially offset by increases for Pakistan and Uzbekistan. World consumption is raised about 900,000 bales, as the increase for Bangladesh is partially offset by a decrease for Russia. World trade is raised nearly 4 percent, due mainly to higher import demand by Bangladesh and China. Exports are raised for India, Uzbekistan, Brazil, and others. World ending stocks are now forecast at 53.7 million bales, down 13 percent from the beginning level.

This report approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

United States Department of Agriculture

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