Interviews
Cotton output for 2005/06 marginally lower
02 Mar '06
2 min read
Post's MY 2005/06 (August-July) production estimate has been shaved to 23.5 million bales based on lower than expected market arrivals, particularly in Maharashtra and southern states.
Market sources report that heavy rains during October and November in these states caused more damage to the crop than earlier anticipated.
Industry production estimates currently range from 23.0 to 24.0 million bales. However, the Cotton Advisory Board's production estimate of December 7, 2005, remains unchanged at 24.23 million bales.
All India market arrivals through February 18, 2006, are estimated at 16.7 million bales compared to 17.8 million bales for the comparable period last year.
Market arrivals by state (in million bales), with last year's corresponding figures in parenthesis are: Punjab 1.73 (1.35); Haryana 1.11 (1.18); Rajasthan 0.90 (0.84); Gujarat 5.45 (3.96) Maharashtra 2.50 (4.70); Madhya Pradesh 1.28 (1.25); Andhra Pradesh 2.25 (2.73); Karnataka 0.32 (0.52); Tamil Nadu 0.19 (0.25); Others 0.10 (0.97); and loose cotton 0.85 (0.90).
The late season rains have also delayed market arrivals in affected states, where the pace of arrivals started gaining momentum only in early January versus the normal mid-December period.
Market sources report that the current pace of arrivals of around 150,000 bales per day will continue through early April.
However, the quality of the late arrivals is not satisfactory in some states. With expected higher late season market arrivals, MY 2005/06 production is likely to reach 23.5 million bales.
Based on the revised data for various states compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture, MY 2004/05 and 2005/06 cotton area estimates are revised to 8.92 and 8.85 million hectares, respectively.
Market sources report that heavy rains during October and November in these states caused more damage to the crop than earlier anticipated.
Industry production estimates currently range from 23.0 to 24.0 million bales. However, the Cotton Advisory Board's production estimate of December 7, 2005, remains unchanged at 24.23 million bales.
All India market arrivals through February 18, 2006, are estimated at 16.7 million bales compared to 17.8 million bales for the comparable period last year.
Market arrivals by state (in million bales), with last year's corresponding figures in parenthesis are: Punjab 1.73 (1.35); Haryana 1.11 (1.18); Rajasthan 0.90 (0.84); Gujarat 5.45 (3.96) Maharashtra 2.50 (4.70); Madhya Pradesh 1.28 (1.25); Andhra Pradesh 2.25 (2.73); Karnataka 0.32 (0.52); Tamil Nadu 0.19 (0.25); Others 0.10 (0.97); and loose cotton 0.85 (0.90).
The late season rains have also delayed market arrivals in affected states, where the pace of arrivals started gaining momentum only in early January versus the normal mid-December period.
Market sources report that the current pace of arrivals of around 150,000 bales per day will continue through early April.
However, the quality of the late arrivals is not satisfactory in some states. With expected higher late season market arrivals, MY 2005/06 production is likely to reach 23.5 million bales.
Based on the revised data for various states compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture, MY 2004/05 and 2005/06 cotton area estimates are revised to 8.92 and 8.85 million hectares, respectively.
United States Department of Agriculture
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