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eMarketer cuts outlook for China, US in retail forecast
06 Jul '19
2 min read
Pic: Shutter Stock
In its latest retail forecast, US market research firm eMarketer has cut its outlook for China and the United States. The trade war and a slowing domestic auto market are hurting Chinese retail sales. China will not surpass the US in retail sales this year, as expected in the firm’s 2018 fourth quarter forecast. That will likely not happen till 2021, it said.
Retail sales in China will grow 3.5 per cent in 2019 to reach $5.291 trillion, which is far below the company’s 2018 fourth quarter forecast, which had China’s retail market growing 7.5 per cent to $5.636 trillion this year.
If the current economic climate continues, retail sales in China will surpass the US in 2021 by about $93 billion, the company said in a press note on the latest forecast.
Currently, China has a 21.1 per cent share of the world’s retail market, while the US has a 21.9 per cent share.
Retail sales in China may struggle to achieve the national growth target of 6.0 per cent to 6.5 per cent for the year, said eMarketer forecasting director Monica Peart.
The forecast for China e-commerce sales is largely unchanged. Online retail sales will grow 27.3 per cent to $1.935 trillion in 2019. That is by far the largest ecommerce market in the world, more than three times the size of the US e-commerce market. China has a 54.7 per cent share of the world’s e-commerce sales, while the US has just 16.6 per cent.
The firm has reduced its outlook slightly for US retail sales from its forecast in the first quarter of this year. It now expects US retail sales to grow at 3.0 per cent this year versus the 3.2 per cent forecast in the first quarter, amounting to $5.475 trillion.
Despite the slight slowdown, the United States will reach a milestone this year, as e-commerce surpasses 10 per cent of total retail sales. E-commerce sales will grow 14.0 per cent to $586.92 billion. (DS)
Retail sales in China will grow 3.5 per cent in 2019 to reach $5.291 trillion, which is far below the company’s 2018 fourth quarter forecast, which had China’s retail market growing 7.5 per cent to $5.636 trillion this year.
If the current economic climate continues, retail sales in China will surpass the US in 2021 by about $93 billion, the company said in a press note on the latest forecast.
Currently, China has a 21.1 per cent share of the world’s retail market, while the US has a 21.9 per cent share.
Retail sales in China may struggle to achieve the national growth target of 6.0 per cent to 6.5 per cent for the year, said eMarketer forecasting director Monica Peart.
The forecast for China e-commerce sales is largely unchanged. Online retail sales will grow 27.3 per cent to $1.935 trillion in 2019. That is by far the largest ecommerce market in the world, more than three times the size of the US e-commerce market. China has a 54.7 per cent share of the world’s e-commerce sales, while the US has just 16.6 per cent.
The firm has reduced its outlook slightly for US retail sales from its forecast in the first quarter of this year. It now expects US retail sales to grow at 3.0 per cent this year versus the 3.2 per cent forecast in the first quarter, amounting to $5.475 trillion.
Despite the slight slowdown, the United States will reach a milestone this year, as e-commerce surpasses 10 per cent of total retail sales. E-commerce sales will grow 14.0 per cent to $586.92 billion. (DS)
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