US holiday shopping could beat forecast despite inflation, COVID: NRF

“Now that we’re in December, the holiday shopping season is nearing the finish line,” Kleinhenz said.

“The question is how have factors ranging from economic indicators to the twists of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the season so far, and what role will they play in the weeks that remain?...In fact, the season could turn out even better than we expected,” he said.

“Consumers and retailers have both revised their playbooks and broken with previous traditions,” Kleinhenz said. “With the momentum we’ve seen so far likely to continue, it seems probable that we will exceed our initial projection.”

Kleinhenz’s remarks came in the December issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review, which said holiday retail sales during November and December could now grow as much as 11.5 per cent over the same period in 2020. That would exceed NRF’s forecast that holiday sales would be up between 8.5 per cent and 10.5 per cent.

The initial forecast was made in late October, when late-summer growth in COVID-19 cases was still a key factor and before October retail sales data was released. October retail sales as calculated by NRF were up 10.5 per cent year over year as many consumers started holiday shopping earlier than ever this year because of concerns over supply chain disruptions.

Kleinhenz called the COVID-19 omicron variant “the latest wildcard raising uncertainty around the economic outlook”, but said it is too early to predict what impact it will have on the economy.

Over the past year, disposable personal income has been up 4.1 per cent and spending has increased 12 per cent. The increased retail sales and strong economic indicators come despite falling consumer confidence.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)