China's leading economic index declines 0.2% in April 2024

27 May '24

2 min read

China's leading economic index declines 0.2% in April 2024

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China's LEI fell 0.2 per cent in April to 150.8, following a revised 0.4 per cent decline in March.
Over six months, the LEI dropped 1.4 per cent, slightly less than the previous period's 1.7 per cent decline.
The CEI also decreased by 0.8 per cent in April to 145, with a 0.2 per cent decline over six months, contrasting with a 4.6 per cent growth earlier.

The leading economic index (LEI) for China experienced a decline of 0.2 per cent in April 2024, settling at 150.8 (2016=100), according to The Conference Board (TCB). This follows a downwardly revised decline of 0.4 per cent in March. Over the six-month period ending in April 2024, the LEI has decreased by 1.4 per cent, marking a slightly smaller decline than the 1.7 per cent contraction observed in the previous six-month period.

In parallel, the coincident economic index (CEI) for China also registered a decline, dropping by 0.8 per cent in April 2024 to 145.0 (2016=100). This follows a more substantial decline of 1.5 per cent in March. Over the six months from October 2023 to April 2024, the CEI fell by 0.2 per cent, a stark contrast to the 4.6 per cent growth rate recorded in the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for China declined again in April, continuing a downward trend that started in March 2022,” said Ian Hu, economic research associate at The Conference Board. “As in past months, depressed consumer expectations weighed heavily on the Index. The six- and twelve-month growth rates for the China LEI remain depressed, pointing to continued economic obstacles ahead. Furthermore, the first negative six-month reading for the CEI suggests that the Chinese economy may have already started to slow after a strong first quarter. All in all, The Conference Board projects annual real GDP growth will slow to 4.6 percent in 2024, after 5.2 percent in 2023.”

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