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Euro area's inflation expectations decline in February: ECB survey

03 Apr '24

2 min read

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Euro area's perceived inflation fell to 5.5 per cent in February, down from January's 6 per cent, with 12-month expectations dropping to 3.1 per cent.
Three-year inflation expectations were stable at 2.5 per cent.
Nominal income growth expectations rose to 1.4 per cent in February, while economic growth is expected to remain at minus 1.1 per cent.

For the fifth consecutive month, the euro area's median rate of perceived inflation over the past 12 months decreased in February, falling to 5.5 per cent from January's 6 per cent, according to the European Central Bank's (ECB) Consumer Expectations Survey. Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also decreased to 3.1 per cent from 3.3 per cent, marking the lowest level since the start of Russia's conflict with Ukraine in February 2022. Meanwhile, expectations for inflation three years ahead remained steady at 2.5 per cent. Despite remaining below perceived past inflation rates, uncertainties regarding future inflation expectations remained unchanged.

Consumer expectations for nominal income growth saw an uptick to 1.4 per cent, while perceptions of nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months declined to 6.4 per cent, aligned with inflation perceptions. However, expectations for nominal spending growth over the next 12 months remained stable at 3.7 per cent.

Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months held steady at minus 1.1 per cent, with expectations for the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 10.9 per cent. While consumers anticipate a slightly higher future unemployment rate compared to the current one (10.5 per cent), indicating overall stability in the labour market, concerns persist, particularly among the lowest income quintile, as per the survey.

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