“Growth outturns in the first quarter of 2017 were higher than the April WEO forecasts in large emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, China, and Mexico, and in several advanced economies including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain,” the latest update said.
Economic activity in both advanced economies and emerging and developing economies is forecast to accelerate in 2017, to 2 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively. The growth forecast for 2018 is 1.9 per cent for advanced economies, 0.1 percentage point below the April 2017 WEO, and 4.8 per cent for emerging and developing economies, the same as in the spring. The revisions reflect primarily the macroeconomic implications of changes in policy assumptions for the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China.
Emerging and developing economies are projected to see a sustained pickup in activity, with growth rising from 4.3 per cent in 2016 to 4.6 per cent in 2017 and 4.8 per cent in 2018. China’s growth is expected to remain at 6.7 per cent in 2017, the same level as in 2016, and to decline only modestly in 2018 to 6.4 per cent.
In India, while activity slowed following the currency exchange initiative, growth for 2016––at 7.1 percent––was higher than anticipated due to strong government spending and data revisions that show stronger momentum in the first part of the year, the update mentions.
With a pickup in global trade and strengthening domestic demand, growth in the ASEAN-5 economies is projected to remain robust at around 5 per cent, the IMF further said. (RKS)
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