US cotton production forecast rises in August

U.S. cotton crop development in early August is ahead of the 5-year average.  As of August 5th, 74 percent of the cotton area was setting bolls, compared with an average of 70 percent. Although most States exceeded their historical averages, there were a few exceptions; the most notable exception was Missouri, where only 52 percent of the area was setting bolls, compared with the 5-year average of 90 percent.

North Carolina, California, and Tennessee were also behind their respective 5-year pace.  In addition, a number of States were reporting bolls opening, with Texas and Arizona leading the way. As of August 5th, 9 percent of the U.S. crop area had bolls opening, slightly above the 2007-11 average.

Meanwhile, 2012 U.S. cotton crop conditions have slipped below the 5-year average recently but remain above last season’s conditions.  In early August, 41 percent of the crop area was rated “good” or “excellent,” compared with only 30 percent in 2011. In contrast, 27 percent of the 2012 cotton area was rated “poor” or “very poor,” compared with 41 percent a year ago. The worst crop conditions are in Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas, with “poor” or “very poor” ratings occurring on 45 percent, 43 percent, and 41 percent of their respective area.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)