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ECOM daily cotton market recap - Jan 22, 2007

23
Jan '07
It was Friday all over again this morning, as little to no fundamental news surfaced over the weekend to give Cotton a much needed spark. Indeed an unchanged opening was called before a 10-20 lower opening prevailed. Prices soon attempted to establish themselves at unchanged but to no avail, as there was a notable spec offer in the market coming out of what looked to be hedge funds.

Added to this some local selling, and soon March began to flounder around the 30 lower area where it did just that for the remainder of the session—flounder. Spread trading was the most interesting facet of the remainder of the session, with bear spreading in the March / May pushing this difference beyond 100 points May over by sessions end. Again there was seen a bid tone in the new crop months as acreage switching is still a concern at the present.

For the options pit there were some long volatility plays around, but on the whole there was little to write home about. In the end though there was some weakness going out in March that closed values right near the lows for a loss of 46 points. Estimated volume was somehow weighed up to 15,000 lots.

Specs should have reduced their net long position even closer to flat as of last Friday according to tomorrow morning's spec hedge release. Indeed with the market going nowhere if anything declining a little, the specs are losing any real incentive to stay in the market.

Click here to view graphical presentation:

More sideways consolidation for the March contract with another today. We are still stuck in a short term trading range between 52.90 and 55.15, which continues to be the nearby course for the virtually lifeless March contract.

Outside of this range we continue to see the greater range from 57.00 down to 51.00 in general. Momentum is very neutral at 45.48 on the RSI, whilst the moving averages (9 EMA and 50 SMA) are still converging, which is still a wild card for lower price extremes

ECOM USA Inc


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