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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - Feb 14, 2007

Feb '07
Electronic futures were tracking higher for much of the early dealings this morning, which was supported by a 30 higher opening and even more compelling 50 higher actual opening in the open outcry markets. It appears that there is a lot of panic type getting out of March shorts right now by both merchants and hedge funds alike.

The March / May spread immediately traded as narrow as 5 premium to the May, however March had a lot of trouble overcoming in the 53.00 level. The May was the lead month though, with spec selling pressure noticeable from unchanged down. In particular there were scatterings of spec sell stops on the way down, leading the entire boar lower towards 52 cents basis March and May.

This had been good support last week however caved in today, with more sell stops yet beneath this level. Commercial buying was noticeable all the way down, with mill fixations in-particularly evident in supporting the March. The March / May spread traded most heavily around the 5-10 premium to May, but was actually trading inverted by the end of the day, much to the chagrin of most merchants.

It is ironic that in an environment of massive US carryout stocks on the balance sheet there can be a supply shortage, but such is the shortcomings of the CCC loan program, where it is impossible to redeem cotton profitably. Prices closed bang on the lows for active month losses of 78 to 115 in the screen settlements. Volume today was spectacular, with a combined67,994 lots trading between open outcry and the screen.

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