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Export sales continue to be slightly positive

Jun '07
The three week bull market continues to find the fodder it needs to keep going. This week's activity was sparked by speculative funds buying in a bit of a vacuum. The merchandising trade has already completed nearly all its intermediate term hedging, thus leaving the market without a strong seller.

This vacuum occurred at a time when technical market factors suggested higher prices, thus with very few sellers, the market had no where to go but up. While the technical market indicators point to higher prices the market has likely overdone itself for the short term. The bull is still running, but prices should back and fill at the current levels. Thus, longer term upward price momentum is still in play, but watch for setbacks with July now gong into first notice day.

One positive this week was the export sales report for the week ending 6/14/07. Not only did sales improve over the prior week, but were up even as prices moved a strongly higher. Thus, textile mills are chasing the market a bit now and have had to pay the higher price.

The jump in prices caused a small panic for mill buyers and brought about stronger than expected sales. Yet, as the market jumped higher near the week's end, mill buying slowed as mills are now comfortable that prices have risen enough for the short term. With this buying slowed the market will likely retrace 150 to 200 points lower, but will take back those losses.

Net sales of all cotton totaled 204,600 RB with Upland accounting for 201,100 bales and Pima totaling 3,500 bales. Shipments essentially matched last week's market year record high totaling 452,600 RB. Upland shipments were 438,600 bales and Pima shipments were 14,300 bales.

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