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NY cotton futures continue impressive climb

Jul '07
New York cotton futures continued their impressive climb this week with life of contract highs in December futures as well as closing highs. Friday marked the fifth consecutive higher close in December as well as the eight consecutive high close in the New York October contract.

The bull market continues, but caution is recommended in the face of this week's USDA supply demand report. With eight consecutive weeks of higher closes December is poised to trade some three to seven cents higher over the summer months. Yet, the market will mark time this week in anticipation of Thursday's supply demand report.

Too, what goes up must go down-and vice versa. Thus, we should expect to see some temporary cooling of December. Look to the USDA report to add a bit of clarity to the market.

The U.S. took a step closer to meeting the 13.0 million bale USDA export estimate for 2006-07 as total shipments for the week ending 6/28/07 totaled 481,400 RB with Upland totaling 470,200 RB and Pima at 11,200 RB. Net sales totaled a healthy 143,300 RB, 133,300 RB Upland and 10,000 RB Pima. Some fifty percent of the weekly sales were made to China.

Shipments to date total 11.02 million 480-pound bales. Thus, with five more reporting weeks remaining in the marketing year, the USDA estimate should be reached.

Nevertheless, ending stocks for the year will remain near 52 million bales as China affirmed this week that its 2006 crop was larger than earlier estimated. Additionally, the market still has to work through an excess of 700,000 bales of certificated stocks.

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