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Roller coaster ride in cotton continues

22
Mar '08

NY futures dropped precipitously this week, with May falling 979 points to close at 71.02 cents, while December sold off 925 points to close at 79.28 cents.

The market's rollercoaster ride continued this week, as values dropped down to long-term support levels before rebounding in today's session. The early limit down move this morning presented a perfect set-up for a bounce, because at that point both May and December were sitting right at a long-term uptrend-line dating back to May 15 last year.

With every momentum indicator flashing oversold signals and knowing that the market could do no worse than limit down until Monday, momentum traders saw this as a worthwhile entry point for a rebound move.

This technical support was reinforced by improving fundamentals, as mills finally came out of hibernation by booking a sizeable volume of business last night and by fixing a decent amount of on-call sales, which prompted the trade to buy some short futures back.

The sharp sell-off in the cotton market was certainly connected to the broad-based correction that has engulfed the entire commodity complex, with the CRB index suffering through its biggest weekly loss in half a century, as it fell by 9.25 percent from last Thursday's record high of 420.64.

Some of the Ag commodities relevant to cotton were especially hard hit during this sell-off, as November soybeans have now dropped 3.08 dollars or 21 percent from their March 3 high, while December wheat has crashed 2.64 dollars or 21 percent since March 12 and December corn has given back 64 cents or 11 percent after setting a contract high on March 11.

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