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December contract is preparing to regain some steam
07
Jun '08
New York prices fell all week only to rebound on Friday along with most other commodities. Cotton is now well entrenched in trading its own fundamentals, but will still respond to price activity of other commodities. Yet, while the current fundamentals are even more bearish than the past four years, prices still remain significantly higher than in those years.

The single difference is that as the 2008 crop goes in the ground, world plantings have been reduced even more than had been expected. Additionally, the skyrocketing cost of inputs will force some areas to reduce input usage; thus, placing more pressure on world stocks since stocks are expected to fall substantially during the 2008-09 marketing year, as well as in the 2009-10 and 2010-11 marketing years.

Further, there is a growing concern of potential yield damage across the globe. Yet, we must remember that there is more than ample time for the yield potential to expand. Thus, the New York market has returned from its crazy days of early March and is now trading the expectation of a significantly tighter supply demand balance sheet.

Exports sales for the last week in May were just as bullish as those of the first week of May. The problem, however, was that sales during the middle of the month were very poor. For the week ending May 29, 2008 net sales totaled 555,300 RB. Upland sales totaled 553,500 RB. Pima sales were only 1,800 RB. China (352,800 RB); Turkey and Vietnam were the primary buyers of Upland.


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