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RMB appreciation may begin from next year

22
Jul '09
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the RMB exchange rate has changed its trend of unilateral appreciation. The RMB rate against the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar has remained almost unchanged since this year.

According to a recent announcement from the Central Bank, the real effective exchange rate of RMB in June was 115.85, showing a devaluation of 3.04 percent from 119.48 in May.

The real effective exchange rate of the RMB has devaluated for the last four months since March, and set the lowest since August last year, and the overall depreciation has reached 4.41 percent this year.

In the first half, China's exports dropped 21.8 percent year-on-year, a decline rarely seen in many years. Experts point out that the Central Bank may not be in favour of the RMB appreciating again as long as exports remain sluggish.

They expect that the RMB will re-appreciate by the end of 2009 or in 2010. Continued appreciation of the RMB will return to the agenda, only after China's economic growth rate stabilizes at 8 percent.

Fibre2fashion New Desk - China


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