Vietnam economy to rebound at 6-6.5% growth rate in best-case scenario

26 May '22

2 min read

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Though Vietnam’s economy recovered slower than the world economy last year, the reverse is expected this year, according to Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) chief economist Can Van Luc, who said out of three possible scenarios in 2022, in the best-case scenario, the economy is expected to rebound strongly with an annual growth rate of 6-6.5 per cent.

The figure is adjusted down to 5.5-6 per cent in the base-case scenario, and to 4.5-5 per cent if things do not turn out well, he said, while addressing a conference with the theme ‘Vietnam Financial Market 2021 and Outlook 2022’ recently.

Meanwhile, inflation is believed to rise steadily due to global inflationary pressures.

“I’m quite sure that Vietnamese inflation will rise to around 3.8-4.2 per cent this year. It is inevitable amid rapid-rising global inflation,” he was quoted as saying by domestic media reports.

Luc was also optimistic that the securities market is likely to become more sound and stable after several corrections. The VN-Index is forecast to rise slightly by 7.7 per cent to reach 1,614 points in the best-case scenario.

Credit growth is expected to hit 14-15 per cent, while the non-performing loan ratio would be kept at around 2 per cent. Pre-tax profits of credit institutions are estimated to grow by 20-25 per cent over 2021 figures.

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