Vietnam's 2023 GDP growth forecast lowered to 6.5%: Standard Chartered

15 May '23

2 min read

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Standard Chartered Bank recently lowered Vietnam's 2023 GDP growth forecast to 6.5 per cent from the earlier 7.2 per cent.
April macro indicators showed a moderation and exports fell by 17.1 per cent year on year (YoY), imports fell by 20.5 per cent YoY and industrial production barely rose.
The trade surplus rose to $1.5 billion from $700 million in March.

Vietnam’s 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast was lowered to 6.5 per cent from the earlier 7.2 per cent by the Standard Chartered Bank in its recent macro-economic updates on the country.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will make another 50 basis points (bps) cut in the refinancing rate to 5 per cent by the end of second quarter, followed by rates on hold until end-2025, Standard Chartered forecast.

However, it saw upside risk to the rate forecast, especially towards year-end, as the SBV may focus more on financial stability than growth.

The bank also turned more cautious on the external front. April macro indicators showed a moderation.

In April, the country’s exports declined by 17.1 per cent year on year (YoY), imports fell by 20.5 per cent YoY and industrial production barely rose. The trade surplus rose to $1.5 billion from $700 million in March.

In the first four months of the year, exports fell by 11.8 per cent YoY; imports were down by 15.4 per cent YoY with a trade surplus of $6.4 billion.

Inflation was 2.8 per cent in April, easing for the third month in a row and down from 4.9 per cent in January.

Core inflation increased by 4.6 per cent as retail sales saw a robust growth of 11.5 per cent.

Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) in January-April 2023 totalled $5.9 billion—down by 1.2 per cent YoY, while pledged FDI was $8.9 billion—down by 17.9 per cent YoY.

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