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WTO goods barometer signals further trade weakening in Q1

20
Feb '20

Pic: WTO

World merchandise trade growth is likely to remain weak in early 2020, according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer released this month. The real-time measure of trade trends now reads 95.5—less than the 96.6 recorded last November and well below the index’s baseline value of 100. This could reduce further by the coronavirus threat.

The Goods Trade Barometer provides information on the current trajectory of world merchandise trade relative to recent trends, based on best-available forward-looking data. It does not account for recent developments such as the coronavirus outbreak, which may dampen trade prospects further.

WTO trade statistics show that the volume of world merchandise trade was down 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 compared to the previous year. While the year-on-year growth figures for the fourth quarter may pick up slightly, the latest barometer reading provides no indication of a sustained recovery.

Indeed, year-on-year trade growth may fall again in the first quarter of 2020, though official statistics to confirm this will only become available in June, WTO said in a press release.

The drop in the barometer since November has been driven by additional declines in indices for container shipping (94.8) and agricultural raw materials (90.9), as well as the plateauing of the automotive products index (100.0). Although indices for export orders (98.5), air freight (94.6) and electronic components (92.8) are all below baseline, they appear to have stabilized and would normally be expected to rise in the coming months.

However, every component of the barometer will be influenced by the economic impact of the virus outbreak and the effectiveness of efforts to treat and contain the epidemic.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

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