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Global cotton stocks to decline in 2006/07

19 Jun '06
5 min read

U.S. cotton exports have reached new heights the last several seasons as the United States remains an export-dominated market; domestic mill demand has been reduced as a result of increased textile and apparel product imports. However, total U.S. cotton demand as a share of global consumption has remained relatively stable over the past decade, but is forecast to dip in 2006/07 to its lowest share since 2000/01.

Despite the numerous revisions, U.S. ending stocks for 2006/07 remained unchanged this month at 4.9 million bales; however, stocks are projected nearly 26 percent (1.7 million bales) lower than in 2005/06, with a stocks-to-use ratio of about 22 percent, the lowest since 2003/04.

Estimates Revised for 2005/06; Back-Year Adjustments Also Made Revisions for 2005/06 included a small adjustment to beginning stocks and a 200,000-bale reduction in exports to 16.8 million bales. The export change is the result of the recent weekly shipment pace as reported in the Export Sales report. Nevertheless, the U.S. export estimate remains a record.

The Bureau of Census also revised monthly mill use and stocks for calendar years 2004 and 2005 that altered estimates for both the 2004/05 and 2003/04 seasons; the revisions were generally small, however. Table 1 of this report includes the revised estimates for upland and ELS cotton supply and demand.

U.S. Textile Imports and Exports Rise in March
March textile imports, at 1.5 billion (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, rose nearly 9 percent from February but were 1 percent below March 2005. Increases occurred for all major fibers, except linen, and for all major end-uses compared with a month earlier.

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