With planting nearly complete, progress will be monitored by the crop's development. As of June 4th, 8 percent of the cotton crop was squaring, slightly below both last year and the 5-year average. In addition to crop progress, cotton crop condition reporting has begun.
As of June 4th, overall U.S. crop conditions for 2006 were below those of the past 2 years and slightly below average. As of early June, 43 percent of the area was rated “good” or “excellent,” compared with 61 percent in 2005. In addition, 21 percent was rated “poor” or “very poor” in early June, double the percentage reported at this time a year ago.
2006/07 Supply and Demand Projections Revised Slightly No changes were made this month to the 2006 U.S. cotton production forecast of 20.7 million bales. An update to cotton area will be issued at the end of June in the Acreage report; this report will combine actual plantings as of early June with estimates for any remaining area to be planted. Total supply, however, was raised slightly in June as back-year revisions pushed beginning stocks to 6.6 million bales.
Meanwhile, total demand was increased 100,000 bales as a result of adjustments in both U.S. mill use and exports. Exports for 2006/07 were raised 300,000 bales this month, largely the result of a shift in shipments from 2005/06. U.S. exports are now forecast at 16.8 million bales for 2006/07, the same as the estimate for 2005/06. On the other hand, U.S. mill use was lowered 200,000 bales, as recent news of another mill closing reduces mill capacity further.