Coincident index slightly up

27 Aug '07

2 min read

The Conference Board announced that the leading index for Spain declined 0.3 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in June.

• The leading index declined in June, following a large gain in May which offset the decline in April. Spanish contribution to Euro M2 was the only positive contributor to the leading index in June. As a result, the growth rate of the leading index has slowed to 1.3 percent from December to June (a 2.5 percent annual rate), significantly down from the 7.0 percent annualized growth rate through the end of 2006.

In the six months from December to June, the number of leading index components rising has been slightly greater than the number of components falling, suggesting strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been roughly balanced.

• The coincident index increased slightly again in June. The strength among the coincident indicators continued to be widespread, but the growth rate of the coincident index has also moderated since the beginning of 2007.

At the same time, real GDP grew at about a 4.0 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2007 (including the second quarter's 3.2 percent annual rate), only slightly below the 4.1 percent average rate in the second half of 2006. Despite short-term volatility, the slower growth in both the leading and coincident indexes so far suggests that moderate economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.

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