Interviews
Conference Board index up in Aug
21 Sep '07
4 min read
The Conference Board announced that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in August.
• The leading index fell sharply in August, and real money supply (M2) was the only large positive contributor in this month. However, the level of the leading index in June and July was revised up slightly as actual data for manufacturers' new orders became available.
The leading index increased 0.5 percent from February to August (a 1.0 percent annual rate), and the six-month diffusion index suggests that the strengths among the components became slightly more widespread in July and August.
• The coincident index increased again in August and it continues to rise on a somewhat slower, but steady, trend. It grew 0.9 percent from February to August (a 1.8 percent annual rate), down from the 2.5 percent average annual rate in 2006.
Industrial production and employment have been making the largest positive contributions to the coincident index in recent months, but employment fell slightly in August. Despite slower growth, the strengths among the coincident indicators continued to be very widespread in recent months.
• The leading index has been alternating between monthly increases and decreases in 2007, and, as a result, it is essentially at the same level as in January 2007. In August, the largest negative contributions to the leading index were due to consumer expectations, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), and stock prices.
• The leading index fell sharply in August, and real money supply (M2) was the only large positive contributor in this month. However, the level of the leading index in June and July was revised up slightly as actual data for manufacturers' new orders became available.
The leading index increased 0.5 percent from February to August (a 1.0 percent annual rate), and the six-month diffusion index suggests that the strengths among the components became slightly more widespread in July and August.
• The coincident index increased again in August and it continues to rise on a somewhat slower, but steady, trend. It grew 0.9 percent from February to August (a 1.8 percent annual rate), down from the 2.5 percent average annual rate in 2006.
Industrial production and employment have been making the largest positive contributions to the coincident index in recent months, but employment fell slightly in August. Despite slower growth, the strengths among the coincident indicators continued to be very widespread in recent months.
• The leading index has been alternating between monthly increases and decreases in 2007, and, as a result, it is essentially at the same level as in January 2007. In August, the largest negative contributions to the leading index were due to consumer expectations, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), and stock prices.
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