Global merchandise trade poised for modest recovery in early 2024

Currently, the barometer index stands at 100.6, marginally above the quarterly trade volume index and the baseline value of 100, suggesting a gradual recovery of merchandise trade in the early part of 2024. However, the situation remains fragile due to potential disruptions from regional conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties, as per WTO.

Merchandise trade volumes experienced a 0.4 per cent decrease in Q3 of 2023 from the preceding quarter and a 2.5 per cent drop from the same period in 2022, largely due to strong growth in the initial three quarters of 2022. From January to October 2023, goods trade showed little change, with a mere 3.2 per cent increase over two years, underperforming against the WTO's October 5, 2023, forecast, which anticipated a 0.8 per cent growth in merchandise trade for the year.

The barometer's component indices present a mixed picture, with export orders (101.7) and air freight (102.3) slightly exceeding the trend, in contrast to container shipping (98.6) and raw materials trade (99.1), which fell below trend. While trade is expected to recover from its 2023 lows into 2024, the high level of uncertainty due to potential risks poses a challenge to the global trade environment.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)