US' cargo volume forecast to drop 22% in H1 2023: Report

This downturn in cargo volume comes amidst disruptions at key West Coast ports, including the Ports of Oakland and Long Beach. While these incidents have not yet significantly affected nationwide data, the NRF, earlier this week, issued a call for intervention to the Biden administration due to these concerns. Negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Association for a new labour agreement have been unproductive, further exacerbating the disruptions at these crucial terminals.

In April 2023, US ports processed 1.78 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs)—representing a 9.6 per cent increase from March but a 21.3 per cent decline year-over-year (YoY), as per the Global Port Tracker report.

May's cargo volume is projected at 1.84 million TEUs, reflecting a 23 per cent YoY drop, while June's forecast stands at 1.91 million TEUs, a 15.3 per cent decrease from last year. This trend would bring the total for the first half of 2023 to 10.5 million TEUs, a 22.3 per cent decrease from the first half of 2022.

The report further forecasts a continued decline in volume for the latter half of the year. July's import cargo volume is predicted to be 1.99 million TEUs, an 8.8 per cent drop YoY, with August at 2.02 million TEUs, down 10.5 per cent. September and October are each forecast to handle 1.95 million TEUs, a decrease of 4 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively.

Although a full-year forecast has not yet been made, the report anticipates that the third quarter will total 5.97 million TEUs, a 7.9 per cent decrease from the same period last year. The first nine months of 2023 should total 16.48 million TEUs, a 17.6 per cent decrease YoY. In 2022, total imports reached 25.5 million TEUs, marking a 1.2 per cent decrease from the record-setting 25.8 million TEUs in 2021.

“Cargo volume is lower than last year but retailers are entering the busiest shipping season of the year bringing in holiday merchandise. The last thing retailers and other shippers need is ongoing disruption at the ports,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “If labour and management can’t reach agreement and operate smoothly and efficiently, retailers will have no choice but to continue to take their cargo to East Coast and Gulf Coast gateways. We continue to urge the administration to step in and help the parties reach an agreement and end the disruptions so operations can return to normal. We’ve had enough unavoidable supply chain issues the past two years. This is not the time for one that can be avoided.”

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)