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US economic picture becomes bit brighter this week
Oct '08
We had another tough day in the markets as cotton was able to struggle higher early but eventually set new contract lows on the close. We keep following the outside equity markets which have now given back all of the 950 point rally from Monday and looks like they may go even lower.

We have a lack of confidence and panic selling which may take all markets further down before we can get the stability to move higher possibly next year. Volume was average with 12,000 futures and 10,000 options as we are seeing very bearish trades taking place in the options which tells us that the panic is still taking place.

We just don't have any bullish news to help find a bottom in the market. Credit is tight and mill demand is weak combined with 100 million bales of new crop cotton in the Northern Hemisphere pipeline coming on line. We just cannot see a reason for the market to stop going lower until we reach a level that finds buyers and that does not appear to be happening. After blowing through the contract low today of 49.44, there is no technical support line in sight.

We broke the long term upside trend line started back in 2001 when we bottomed out under 30 cents, but the dollar was also much stronger back then so we think the bottom should be closer to mid 40's worst case, but outside markets still have the last say.

The U.S. economic picture became a bit brighter this week as the stock markets found some support and this may lead to a commodity bounce. With RSI at 25, we have reached extremely oversold conditions and should be ready for at least a consolidation possibly in the 50-55 cent range for Z'08.


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