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Daily worldwide cotton market report
21
Apr '09
Last night in New York futures market, May 2009 closed at 47.79 with a loss of 215 points, the July 09 closed at 49.00 with a loss of 169 points, the October 09 closed at 51.65 with a loss of 169 points, while the December 09 closed at 53.29 with a loss of 166 points. The A index declared settled at 57.75 with an increase of 55 points today.

The spot rate of KCA remained firm and strong, the settlement declared at Rs. 3550/= with no changes today. In the domestic market 400 bales of Ali Pur sold at Rs. 3450/=, 2328 bales of Shehr Sultan sold at Rs. 3450/=, 1025 bales of Sadiq Abad changed hands at Rs. 3700/=, 400 bales of Shahdad Pur Sold at Rs. 3500/=, 400 bales of Tando Adam sold at Rs. 3500/=, 400 bales of Matiyari sold at Rs. 3500/=, 1600 bales of Nau Abad sold at Rs. 3500/=, 800 bales of Daharki sold at Rs. 3700/=, 600 bales of Shahdad Pur sold at Rs. 3800/=.

First notice day on May is Friday April 24th. The May/July differences reflecting less than full carry may invite deliveries. The large increase in fund longs over the past three weeks increases the vulnerability of Ice futures for a near turn correction.

According to an article in local daily, “Global free fall begins to ease. The world economy's downward spiral may be slowing, but it is still expected to enter 'deeply negative territory' this year before a recovery begins in the first half of '10, said IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn. He said there needs to be a 'coherent and coordinated' response by the int'l community to cleanse banks' balance sheets of toxic assets and ensure that stimulus measures aren't prematurely withdrawn.”

U.S. cotton under loan as of April 14th was 1,217,456 bales down 1,271,634 on the week. There were 546,364 bales under Form A and 873,550 bales under Form G.

Robust U.S. export demand continues to exceed expectations and has now swollen 08/09 seasonal commitments equal to the 12.5 million bale U.S. export projection. The two month rally has in effect transferred the 08/09 crop from producers' hands to merchants' hands as noted by the decline in U.S. loan stocks from 7 million the beginning of February to 1,217,456 as of last Tuesday.

The depletion of loan stocks suggests there is a reduction of potential hedge selling on further price strength in futures. Increasing U.S. export demand from current commitment levels would result in U.S. ending stocks declining below forecasted levels as of August 1st and translate to a reduction in U.S. ending stocks for the end of the 09/10 marketing season as well. As a consequence U.S. prices will eventually rally to ration the remaining supply for domestic supply and insure against unfavorable crop cotton this season.

Ghulam Rabbani & Co.

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