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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - Feb 16, 2007

Feb '07
Futures continued on firmly this morning in the E trade session, with yesterday's massive March / May inversion clearly indicating that their some very uncomfortable shorts trapped in the March contract. The export sales were supportive early and the open outcry caught a 30 higher bid in the March and then a 30 higher initially in the May.

The spreads immediately began widening again from yesterday's trading level around 150 premium to the March all the way out to 220 at one point, in a blood lust fashion. The March contract blew through resistance at the 54.00 level early on, however this level represents an 11.5 cent spread between the official AWP and the March contract, which appears to be a level where cotton can redeem out of the loan and deliver on the March contract.

This natural resistance led the May and July contracts to fall off, getting near new contract lows on the May. An inability to break down this level as well as a good commercial fixation bid held prices up and eventually bounced them back through unchanged and led to a higher close across the board on the exchange close, a bizarre day to round out a bizarre week of cotton trading. In finality the market settled with gains of 24 in the March and 10 in the May. Estimated volumes included 49,721 lots combined.

Cotton continues to build in the CCC loan, with this week's report indicating a net increase of 132,900 bales taking the overall stocks to a ridiculous 13.74 million bales.It is ironic that there can be a squeeze on the board with so much stock sitting around, but that is the nature of the program. In other news this weeks US export sales were surprisingly good, with 316,500 net sales ( 92,300 bales to China ) whilst shipments were again average at 202,100 bales.

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