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Domestic cotton production rise by 5.8% in MY 2007/08

18
May '07
MY 2007/08 domestic cotton production is forecast to increase by approximately 5.8 percent to 683,000 bales. This forecast is based on a planted area estimate of 127,000 hectares, and the assumption that the Mexican government will maintain its target-price support program for cotton.

Domestic cotton consumption, however, is forecast to decrease slightly in MY 2007/08 from the previous year's revised estimate. This decline is a result of stagnant demand from the textile industry, the main consumer of cotton in Mexico. As a result, imports are forecast to remain largely unchanged from the MY 2006/07 level of 1.5 million bales.

Section I. Situation and Outlook:
MY 2007/08 domestic cotton production is forecast to increase by approximately 5.8 percent to 683,000 bales. This forecast is based on a planted area estimate of 127,000 hectares, and the assumption that the Mexican government is going to continue its target-price support program for cotton.

The Confederation of Mexican Cotton Associations (CMCA) has stated that growers will not be able to expand, or even maintain current levels of cotton production, without this government support. The CMCA estimates that approximately 60,000 hectares will be planted with genetically modified seed varieties in MY 2007/08, an increase of approximately 20 percent over last year.

Due to revised official data from the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Foodstuffs (SAGARPA), and preliminary information from private sources, USDA/Mexico estimates for cotton production, and planted and harvested areas for MY 2006/07 were adjusted upward. Similarly, MY 2005/06 production and harvested area estimates were revised slightly based on official SAGARPA figures.

Domestic cotton consumption is forecast to decrease by approximately 2.5 percent in MY2007/08 from the previous year's revised estimate. Consumer demand for apparel and textile products will likely decrease next year as Mexico's apparel and textile exports continue to lose market share in the United States. The main cotton consumer in Mexico continues to be the textile sector.


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