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Plexus Cotton market report

May '07
The futures market continued to gain ground this week, with July closing up 50 points at 50.09 cents, while December gained 129 points to close at 55.15 cents.

Preliminary loan statistics showed that as of Tuesday, May 22nd, there were still around 3.5 mio bales left in the loan, which means that around 6.0 mio bales had been redeemed at last week's AWP of 40.12 cents. Since the AWP continues to rise sharply from the current 41.16 cents to 42.61 cents as of tomorrow, there may have been another 1.5 mio bales redeemed this week, which may explain why the market has been under renewed selling pressure over the last few days.

The latest NYBOT spec/hedge report confirmed that the trade did increase its net short position by over 16'700 futures contracts last week, while specs bought that same amount as they went from 4.8% net short to 2.6% net long.

As of last Friday, the trade (excluding index funds) showed a net futures short position of around 10.6 mio bales, while specs were about 0.6 mio bales net long. However, we need to bear in mind that whilst the spec net long position does not look like a big exposure, it is composed of a rather substantial 10.4 mio bales on the long side and 9.8 mio bales on the short side.

US export sales continued at a brisk pace of 407'500 running bales of Upland and Pima for both marketing years, which brings total commitments for the current season to around 13.5 mio bales. Shipments finally picked up last week as they were reported at a marketing year high of 395'500 running bales.

For the season, exports now amount to 8.4 mio statistical bales and need to average around 435'000 bales for the remainder of the season in order to make the current USDA estimate of 13.25 mio bales.

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