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ECOM daily cotton markets recap

31
May '07
Market had an nice bounce today on some spec buying that was fueled by some friendly options and outside grain market strength. We are approaching the last day of the trading month tomorrow and the specs look committed to testing the highs of this 400 point correction as well as other commodities.

The market continues to run into heavy trade scale up selling every time we test the highs above 51 cents in N'07. The market fell 50 pts off the highs for the day as the selling proved to heavy for the locals to break through as volume was average at 12,000 futures and 6,000 options.

Spec hedge report was very impressive as you will see the strong increase over the last two weeks. Specs rose another 5% to 7.6% long and look to be starting to reach the high side of a the range for the recent spec long positions. Will have to see how long the specs are willing to test this area if they cannot sustain new highs and more upside gain.

Weather is still an issue, but demand remains weak and we are having trouble breaking the 1100 pts spread from an AWP @ the lows of 40.12 as it is looking like almost 8 million bales were redeemed at that level.

Sure the specs will continue to test the highs, but we will need a close above this area and the 50 day moving average @ 51.33 to break us out of this area of heavy resistance.

Technically we continue to move sideways as the spread is the main feature with July options expiring in right at 10 days. This may continue to see a weak front month and firm back months in Z'07 and H'08 unless a stopper appears. Downside support will still be found at today's lows of 49.95 as we continue to move sideways in this 100 pt range.

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