Interviews
US cotton supply unchanged, USDA reports
15 Mar '08
3 min read
The 2007/08 U.S. cotton production estimate remains at 19 million bales (upland at 18.2 million and extra-long staple (ELS) at 825,000 bales), compared with last season's 21.6-million-bale crop.
USDA will release final production estimates on May 11th. Based on the current production estimates and beginning stocks of nearly 9.5 million bales, this season's U.S. cotton supply will total 28.5 million bales, 3 percent above 2006/07, but 3 percent below the record of 2005/06.
While the supply estimate was unchanged in March, 2007/08 U.S. cotton demand was reduced 1.2 million bales—attributable to a substantial reduction in export prospects this season. U.S. cotton demand is now forecast at 19.1 million bales, 6 percent below the February forecast, but still 6 percent above 2006/07.
Exports were responsible for the entire reduction in March as mill use remains estimated at 4.6 million bales. Adjustments to supply and demand estimates for several foreign countries (particularly China and India), along with the sluggishness of U.S. export commitments, supported the sharp export decline this month.
Based on the latest forecast, U.S. cotton ending stocks for 2007/08 are expected marginally below the beginning level at 9.4 million bales. Similarly, the stocks-touse ratio is estimated at 49 percent compared with 53 percent in 2006/07.
Record Textile Trade Deficit in Calendar Year 2007:
Total 2007 textile imports declined for the first time since 2001. Imports for last year were 19.7 billion (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, 16 million below 2006. Textile exports also declined in 2007 to 4.1 billion pounds, the lowest level since 1996.
USDA will release final production estimates on May 11th. Based on the current production estimates and beginning stocks of nearly 9.5 million bales, this season's U.S. cotton supply will total 28.5 million bales, 3 percent above 2006/07, but 3 percent below the record of 2005/06.
While the supply estimate was unchanged in March, 2007/08 U.S. cotton demand was reduced 1.2 million bales—attributable to a substantial reduction in export prospects this season. U.S. cotton demand is now forecast at 19.1 million bales, 6 percent below the February forecast, but still 6 percent above 2006/07.
Exports were responsible for the entire reduction in March as mill use remains estimated at 4.6 million bales. Adjustments to supply and demand estimates for several foreign countries (particularly China and India), along with the sluggishness of U.S. export commitments, supported the sharp export decline this month.
Based on the latest forecast, U.S. cotton ending stocks for 2007/08 are expected marginally below the beginning level at 9.4 million bales. Similarly, the stocks-touse ratio is estimated at 49 percent compared with 53 percent in 2006/07.
Record Textile Trade Deficit in Calendar Year 2007:
Total 2007 textile imports declined for the first time since 2001. Imports for last year were 19.7 billion (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, 16 million below 2006. Textile exports also declined in 2007 to 4.1 billion pounds, the lowest level since 1996.
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