Home / Knowledge / News / Textiles / UBS expects slow growth in India in 2018-19 2nd half

UBS expects slow growth in India in 2018-19 2nd half

16
Sep '18
Pressure on India, the only major emerging market with a negative balance of payments (BoP), is likely to sustain, according to Swiss brokerage firm UBS, which recently said the Indian rupee would depreciate to 73 by March 2019. A country's external balances is a key factor influencing currency and its weakness has led to a 12 per cent rupee depreciation, it said.

Low goods and services tax (GST) collection and divestments along with strained state finances will take the consolidated fiscal deficit to 6.5 per cent this fiscal against the government's budget estimate of 5.9 per cent, a news agency reported citing UBS.

The firm revised its current account deficit (CAD) forecast for this fiscal to 2.7 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.5 per cent, which would put India's overall BoP in a deficit of around 1 per cent of GDP, the first in seven years.

Expecting pressures on the BoP to continue till fiscal 2019-20, UBS revised its year-end rupee level estimate to 73 against the dollar, compared with the earlier 66.

As global uncertainties escalate, emerging economies like India that are running twin deficits are likely to face heightened financial market volatility as well as downside risks to their potential growth outlook, the company explained.

It said after the strong start in the first quarter, economic growth will slow down to 7-7.3 per cent in the second half of the fiscal. It estimated the full year economic growth to come in at 7.5 per cent, up from 6.7 per cent in the year-ago period. Inflation will be at ‘manageable’ levels though.

It expects India to miss its consolidated fiscal deficit for fiscal year 2018-19 on difficulties on GST collection, divestments, as also stretched state government finances.

The Indian government has committed to reduce its fiscal deficit to 3.3 per cent.

The brokerage said it expects a shortfall of up to ₹30,000 crore in goods and services tax collections for the current fiscal, unless there is a significant increase in tax compliance or the GST Council agrees with the recently passed amendments related to unallocated compensation cess to be shared between the central government and the states. (DS)

Fibre2Fashion News Desk – India


Must ReadView All

Courtesy: Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore

Textiles | On 14th Nov 2018

Vietnam ratifies trans-Pacific trade pact CPTPP

Vietnam’s 14th National Assembly recently adopted a resolution...

Courtesy: Pexels

Textiles | On 14th Nov 2018

India's WPI inflation for apparel up 0.7% in October

India’s annual rate of inflation, based on monthly wholesale price...

Courtesy: EU Chamber of Commerce

Textiles | On 14th Nov 2018

PRC promises unrealised: EU Chamber of Commerce in China

The European Union (EU) Chamber of Commerce in China has said the...

Interviews View All

Claudia Kersten, Global Organic Textile Standard

Claudia Kersten
Global Organic Textile Standard

‘GOTS is a very efficient supply chain management tool, especially for...

Vidhyaa Shankar. S, A Ganapathi Chettiar

Vidhyaa Shankar. S
A Ganapathi Chettiar

'The usage of knits is getting into the boundaries of woven fabrics'

Anshul Sood, Oceedee

Anshul Sood
Oceedee

‘Indian footwear market is nascent and largely a trend follower’

Sugandha Bhardwaj,

Sugandha Bhardwaj

<div>New Delhi-based Brinjal Designs Pvt Ltd manufactures home furnishing...

Ramez Basmaji,

Ramez Basmaji

Fabusse is a Lebanon-based fashion agency that offers a variety of...

Harsh Shah,

Harsh Shah

Fynd is the central online shopping destination for fashion, offering...

Mr Ambrose Chan, DSG International (Thailand) PLC

Mr Ambrose Chan
DSG International (Thailand) PLC

Marten Alkhagen, Swerea IVF AB

Marten Alkhagen
Swerea IVF AB

Marten Alkhagen, Senior Scientist - Nonwoven and Technical Textiles of...

Silke Brand-Kirsch, Schlegel und Partner GmbH

Silke Brand-Kirsch
Schlegel und Partner GmbH

<div>Schlegel und Partner is the market research and consultancy company...

Sanjukta Dutta, Sanjukta's Studio

Sanjukta Dutta
Sanjukta's Studio

<b>Sanjukta Dutta</b> creates unique garments by clubbing prints of...

Karan Arora, Karan Arora

Karan Arora
Karan Arora

Bridal couture created with rich Indian heritage, exquisite craftsmanship...

Wendell Rodricks, Wendell Rodricks

Wendell Rodricks
Wendell Rodricks

"We should not compare India and the West. There are things we do that...

Press Release

Press Release

Letter to Editor

Letter to Editor

RSS Feed

RSS Feed

Submit your press release on


editorial@fibre2fashion.com

Letter To Editor






(Max. 8000 char.)

Search Companies





SEARCH

Leave your Comments


November 2018

Subscribe today and get the latest update on Textiles, Fashion, Apparel and so on.

news category


Related Categories:

Advanced Search